July 2018 – IN BRIEF

What happened
  • Mexico elected a new president. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador brings new era of leftism, but Peso recovered and steadied
  • The U.S. Dollar saw monthly gains to make it three in a row. Best streak since 2016
  • European Central Bank officials showed confidence in the economy, quantitative easing scheduled to end in December
  • Pound Sterling sank further as Brexit anxiety took toll on U.K. economy and politics
  • Canadian Dollar reached worst levels in a year coping with trade concerns, slow growth
  • Stocks and commodities panicked over tariffs. MSCI Emerging Index worst month in 3 years
Tempus’ view
  • July could be a month of hitting the brakes on dollar appreciation as other regions recover economically from slow start to 2018
  • Trade concerns are starting to play a negative role as analysis of tariffs reveal worry of slowdown after retaliation from others
  • Euro likely to see gains if financial officials remain positive and data feeds into optimism
  • Pound to stay under serious pressure with PM Theresa May struggling to find cohesion
  • NAFTA at peril as Mexico sits down with new administration and Canada ponders about U.S. new policies
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