May 2018 – IN BRIEF

What happened
  • Gross Domestic Product growth in Q1 of 2018 expanded by 2.3% in the U.S. over a 2.0% estimate. Our predictions panned out
  • Economic indicators finally improved the U.S. Dollar as it appreciated by 2.4% in April
  • Brexit uncertainties revealed their negative effect on the U.K. economy, sinking Pound
  • The Euro-zone’s economic recovery may have reached its peak; Euro down 1.8%
  • Positive geopolitical developments, such as peace in Korea, and fears over a “Trade War” fading boosted the greenback
Tempus’ view
  • Economic performance divergence as well as monetary tightening by the Fed will remain as drivers of U.S. Dollar strength
  • Political instability in Italy and issues with Emmanuel Macron in France scare €-bulls
  • The safe-havens may be down for now as markets flourish, but wild swings likely
  • Pound Sterling may see its value tumble further if no progress made. Political gridlock could add more concerns long-term
  • Mexican Peso will have a tough ride as we are less than two months away from elections
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